Central, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

617
FXUS64 KLIX 280813
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Weak ridging will remain over Texas while weak upper low remains
over Georgia. That`s pretty much no change from the past couple of
afternoons. Precipitable water values that were near 1.8 inches
Friday afternoon are expected to be at similar values this
afternoon, but a bit higher Sunday afternoon. That is likely to
produce a convective pattern that resembles the previous couple of
afternoons. Initiation may not occur until about midday, if
convection allowing models are any clue. Instantaneous areal
coverage may not get much higher than 20-30 percent this afternoon,
but for the 12 hour period as a whole, around 50 to 60 percent.
Storms haven`t shown much actual movement with wind fields below 500
mb remaining very light, 5 to 10 knots or less. This will cause
cells to rain themselves out in place with propagation occurring to
shift updrafts. Dissipation of thunderstorms over land has pretty
consistently occurred near or prior to 10 PM CDT for the last 3
nights.

Even though the larger scale upper pattern doesn`t change much on
Sunday, moisture values are expected to be a little higher, closer
to 2 inches. This may provide a little more extensive areal
coverage. Additionally, low level wind flow may allow for a bit
better cell movement, closer to 10 knots. Over the 12 hour daytime
period Sunday, most locations should get rained on at least once.

Both days, there is at least a non-zero threat of excessive rainfall
if one of these slow moving cells anchors over a susceptible urban
area with poor drainage. Gusty winds certainly would be possible as
the stronger updrafts collapse, but widespread wind issues aren`t
expected.

High temperatures likely to top out in the 88 to 93 range as
afternoon convection develops, with Sunday potentially slightly
cooler than today. Overall, expect heat index values to remain below
advisory criteria over the next 36 hours. RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The same general pattern will play out into the new week. A trough
will settle into the SE as we move into the middle of the week. This
broad weak trough axis will help our area have a bit more activity
than normal by mid to late week as it orients itself over the NE
gulf and westward into MS/LA where it will bend into a more NW
direction. This will help keep precip numbers high going through
next week. We can talk about the possibility of a tropical system
developing over the Bay of Campeche, but it wouldn`t be a long
discussion. Synoptic patterns are holding very well which shows the
large scale Bermuda high ridging over the gulf coast. The new trough
that settles into the SE will cause this ridging to sink even
farther southward. This coupled with the central CONUS ridging keeps
anything developing there moving west into Mexico. Some social media
platforms and other forms of entertainment may scare some, but if
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&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR outside TSRA. TSRA chances will be shown in PROB30 groups.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Winds may hold to more southerly to southwesterly, or even westerly
components over the next few days as the center of the surface high
shifts a bit to the east. Wind speeds will generally remain less
than 15 knots, with the more general concern daily/nightly rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, which would produce locally higher winds
and seas. Most frequent timing will be late night and morning hours
over the open waters, and afternoon and early evening over the lakes
and sounds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  90  72 /  50  20  80  20
BTR  93  74  91  76 /  50  20  90  20
ASD  90  74  90  74 /  60  20  90  30
MSY  91  78  92  78 /  70  30  90  20
GPT  89  75  89  75 /  70  40  90  50
PQL  90  73  90  73 /  70  40  90  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RW